Open source tends to win: Apache and Linux. But it rarely goes against shareware.
I think browsers are starting to be commodities, so it is the value-add to browsers that brings on the Second Browser Wars. RSS readers are that value-added. I downloaded newsmonster.org for mozilla yesterday. Terrific product that competes head-to-had with Feed Demon which works with IE. This will be an interesting test of open source versus shareware.
But it points out how irrelevant standard browsers are becoming.